Rick Santorum won both Alabama and Mississippi last night. Now that he has a new revitalized momentum shift in his favor, Santorum is more than ever determined to stay in this race to the very end. At the same time, Gingrich is suggesting he will stay in as well.
First off, it is not a surprise to me that Romney lost both Alabama and Mississippi. These are deep south states and Romney has not done well in the previous deep south states of South Carolina and Georgia. But the Alabama and Mississippi primaries did show a huge momentum shift not for Santorum, but for Romney.
Compare the other deep south results to what happened last night. Romney lost by 12.6% in South Carolina and 21.3% in Georgia. Last night Romney lost by 5.5% in Alabama and 2.6% in Mississippi. That is a massive swing towards Romney in the deep south. It shows that more and more people, even in the deep south, are starting to accept Romney as the candidate to run against Barack Obama.
Regardless of the fact that it is becoming more and more improbable for Santorum or Gingrich to win the nomination before the convention, they are both saying they are going all the way to Tampa and want to have a brokered convention and battle it out there. This would be very bad for the GOP! The last time someone won coming out of a brokered convention was in 1932 when FDR won the presidency. Do you think any of the Republican candidates are the next FDR?
Going forward, I can see a slight momentum shift for Santorum in future primaries, but I cannot see him winning the nomination unless he stops Romney from gaining the delegates needed to secure the nomination before the convention, and then somehow convinces delegates to switch their votes to him. If that does happen, expect a landslide loss in November with Obama winning comfortably against Santorum.